Robin Harris makes some good points about why Windows is winning the netbook market, and why it looks like it's a done deal that Linux has lost there. When I was at the Microsoft Developer Conference in Reston, they were quick to point out that they are fighting tooth and nail for this market with Windows 7 (which is already showing good signs on these devices) and so far they are succeeding.
The sad fact is that desktop Linux is a failure. The success cases are all statistical outliers. Every new year is supposed to be the "year of desktop Linux," but each has come and gone without much fanfare. In the next two to three years, with MacOS X 10.6 and Windows 7, this will be painfully apparent to most people who would have considered desktop Linux. Both Apple and Microsoft are playing hardball with resources and a competitive edge that no part of the groups developing "desktop Linux" seem to be able to match.
If Windows 7 is able to really correct the mistakes of Windows Vista, then it's game over for desktop Linux. It will be fighting against a version of Windows that most Windows users will actually want--and be able to use--and MacOS X 10.6 which will be the first release of MacOS X focused mostly on bug fixing and long-term performance boosts. They will also be in a position to put pressure on MacOS X from a developer point of view because quite frankly, .NET is a better set of APIs than Cocoa.
The reason Microsoft tends to win is that its competitors assume that it is always on the precipice of losing, but as the early reviews of Windows 7 are showing, they are also a company that can very quickly rebuild their products to make up for lost time.
The sad fact is that desktop Linux is a failure. The success cases are all statistical outliers. Every new year is supposed to be the "year of desktop Linux," but each has come and gone without much fanfare. In the next two to three years, with MacOS X 10.6 and Windows 7, this will be painfully apparent to most people who would have considered desktop Linux. Both Apple and Microsoft are playing hardball with resources and a competitive edge that no part of the groups developing "desktop Linux" seem to be able to match.
If Windows 7 is able to really correct the mistakes of Windows Vista, then it's game over for desktop Linux. It will be fighting against a version of Windows that most Windows users will actually want--and be able to use--and MacOS X 10.6 which will be the first release of MacOS X focused mostly on bug fixing and long-term performance boosts. They will also be in a position to put pressure on MacOS X from a developer point of view because quite frankly, .NET is a better set of APIs than Cocoa.
The reason Microsoft tends to win is that its competitors assume that it is always on the precipice of losing, but as the early reviews of Windows 7 are showing, they are also a company that can very quickly rebuild their products to make up for lost time.
IMHO, Vista is a wooden duck...If Windows 7 beta is an indication of what to expect, it'll make the Vista release look like the whole New Coke/Classic Coke marketing from the 80s...
I wouldn't count on that. While it possible that Microsoft will screw this up again, it would be extremely foolish for their competitors to assume that Windows 7 is going to end up like Vista just because they shared the same code base once upon a time. Since this new OS is based on Windows Server 2008, I wouldn't count it out, especially since desktop Linux still has a lot of its own issues. Apple is the only one who is safe here.
Doh...I meant to say that Windows 7 will be a successful release...was using the coke thing to illustrate...
another buddy of mine keeps giving me the Mac recruitment speech...if I want this new OS to succeed for anything it's just to shut the MAColytes up...